China suppliers believe they can sustain export revenue in the first half of 2014, although optimism is marginally lower than it was for the last six months of 2013. This is according to the latest Global Sources survey of 529 exporters.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents expect export sales to increase in January to June 2014 compared with the same six months in 2013.
This is the second-straight half-year cycle that the heavy majority expected an increase in earnings from international deliveries.
In the supplier survey prior to this, more than 70 percent answered the export revenue forecast question in the affirmative. That poll focused on July to December 2013 projections.
For the first-half 2014 survey, most of the manufacturers expecting higher export sales are tempering their optimism when it comes to growth rate estimates. Among these companies, 48 percent placed the increase between 10 and 20 percent. Sixteen percent said the uptick will not exceed 10 percent.
Meanwhile, among suppliers that forecast earnings to decrease, 43 percent expect declines of more than 20 percent. Within this subgroup are several companies that believe revenue loss will exceed 40 percent.
Compared with second-half 2013 survey results, it can be said that suppliers are actually expecting a recovery of sorts. In that particular poll, 52 percent anticipated decreases of more than 20 percent.
When classifying survey results by industry, the most positive response comes from hardware and automotive parts. Close to 75 percent of suppliers in this segment see export growth and only 8 percent are bracing for a decline.
Even the rosiest industry, however, is cautious. Of the companies that said revenue will rise, 44 percent estimated the increase at 10 to 20 percent, approximating the overall sentiment.
Projections of home and gift products suppliers are the most somber, with 21 percent anticipating lower earnings in first-half 2014. Thirteen percent think they can keep revenue stable.
All price quotes in this report are in US dollars unless otherwise specified. FOB prices were provided by the companies interviewed only as reference prices at the time of interview and may have changed.